forecast · linear regression · 5 years of data
2026 Australian baby name predictions
We took the last 5 years (2020–2024) of national rankings and ran a linear regression for each top-30 name. The numbers below are our forecasts for 2026 and 2028. Treat them as directional, not absolute — naming trends can be lumpy, not linear.
♀ Rising girls' names
- Hazel 858 in 2024 → ~984 predicted 2026 +15%
- Lily 818 in 2024 → ~965 predicted 2026 +18%
- Daisy 572 in 2024 → ~673 predicted 2026 +18%
♂ Rising boys' names
- Theodore 1,376 in 2024 → ~1,608 predicted 2026 +17%
- Henry 1,310 in 2024 → ~1,466 predicted 2026 +12%
- Luca 1,208 in 2024 → ~1,562 predicted 2026 +29%
- Hudson 1,133 in 2024 → ~1,328 predicted 2026 +17%
- Kai 627 in 2024 → ~728 predicted 2026 +16%
- Beau 536 in 2024 → ~578 predicted 2026 +8%
♀ Falling girls' names
- Charlotte 1,354 in 2024 → ~1,131 predicted 2026 -16%
- Amelia 1,228 in 2024 → ~1,074 predicted 2026 -13%
- Isla 1,191 in 2024 → ~1,084 predicted 2026 -9%
- Olivia 1,121 in 2024 → ~900 predicted 2026 -20%
- Mia 1,038 in 2024 → ~892 predicted 2026 -14%
- Matilda 874 in 2024 → ~821 predicted 2026 -6%
- Ella 815 in 2024 → ~752 predicted 2026 -8%
- Ava 792 in 2024 → ~577 predicted 2026 -27%
- Grace 755 in 2024 → ~589 predicted 2026 -22%
- Ivy 707 in 2024 → ~654 predicted 2026 -7%
♂ Falling boys' names
- Oliver 1,834 in 2024 → ~1,724 predicted 2026 -6%
- Charlie 1,125 in 2024 → ~988 predicted 2026 -12%
- Jack 1,030 in 2024 → ~803 predicted 2026 -22%
- Thomas 917 in 2024 → ~779 predicted 2026 -15%
- William 916 in 2024 → ~651 predicted 2026 -29%
- Elijah 857 in 2024 → ~614 predicted 2026 -28%
- Lucas 820 in 2024 → ~564 predicted 2026 -31%
- Archie 780 in 2024 → ~698 predicted 2026 -11%
- Oscar 684 in 2024 → ~527 predicted 2026 -23%
- James 682 in 2024 → ~532 predicted 2026 -22%
Methodology & caveats
Linear regression on 5 years of data (2020–2024) extrapolated to 2026 and 2028. Includes only names currently in the national top 30 per gender. Rising/falling cutoff: ±5% change vs 2024 baseline.
Linear extrapolation can't capture inflection points or cultural events (a TV show, a royal birth, a viral meme). Treat as a baseline expectation a real new parent could redirect within months. Numbers update as new BDM data comes in.