forecast · linear regression · 5 years of data

2026 Australian baby name predictions

We took the last 5 years (2020–2024) of national rankings and ran a linear regression for each top-30 name. The numbers below are our forecasts for 2026 and 2028. Treat them as directional, not absolute — naming trends can be lumpy, not linear.

Rising girls' names

  • Hazel 858 in 2024 ~984 predicted 2026 +15%
  • Lily 818 in 2024 ~965 predicted 2026 +18%
  • Daisy 572 in 2024 ~673 predicted 2026 +18%

Rising boys' names

  • Theodore 1,376 in 2024 ~1,608 predicted 2026 +17%
  • Henry 1,310 in 2024 ~1,466 predicted 2026 +12%
  • Luca 1,208 in 2024 ~1,562 predicted 2026 +29%
  • Hudson 1,133 in 2024 ~1,328 predicted 2026 +17%
  • Kai 627 in 2024 ~728 predicted 2026 +16%
  • Beau 536 in 2024 ~578 predicted 2026 +8%

Falling girls' names

  • Charlotte 1,354 in 2024 ~1,131 predicted 2026 -16%
  • Amelia 1,228 in 2024 ~1,074 predicted 2026 -13%
  • Isla 1,191 in 2024 ~1,084 predicted 2026 -9%
  • Olivia 1,121 in 2024 ~900 predicted 2026 -20%
  • Mia 1,038 in 2024 ~892 predicted 2026 -14%
  • Matilda 874 in 2024 ~821 predicted 2026 -6%
  • Ella 815 in 2024 ~752 predicted 2026 -8%
  • Ava 792 in 2024 ~577 predicted 2026 -27%
  • Grace 755 in 2024 ~589 predicted 2026 -22%
  • Ivy 707 in 2024 ~654 predicted 2026 -7%

Falling boys' names

  • Oliver 1,834 in 2024 ~1,724 predicted 2026 -6%
  • Charlie 1,125 in 2024 ~988 predicted 2026 -12%
  • Jack 1,030 in 2024 ~803 predicted 2026 -22%
  • Thomas 917 in 2024 ~779 predicted 2026 -15%
  • William 916 in 2024 ~651 predicted 2026 -29%
  • Elijah 857 in 2024 ~614 predicted 2026 -28%
  • Lucas 820 in 2024 ~564 predicted 2026 -31%
  • Archie 780 in 2024 ~698 predicted 2026 -11%
  • Oscar 684 in 2024 ~527 predicted 2026 -23%
  • James 682 in 2024 ~532 predicted 2026 -22%

Methodology & caveats

Linear regression on 5 years of data (2020–2024) extrapolated to 2026 and 2028. Includes only names currently in the national top 30 per gender. Rising/falling cutoff: ±5% change vs 2024 baseline.

Linear extrapolation can't capture inflection points or cultural events (a TV show, a royal birth, a viral meme). Treat as a baseline expectation a real new parent could redirect within months. Numbers update as new BDM data comes in.